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People along Florida’s east coast are bracing for a rare November hurricane as Tropical Storm Nicole continues to strengthen near the Bahamas.
Nicole transitioned from a subtropical storm to a tropical storm Tuesday, a day after forming in the Atlantic Ocean, according to the National Hurricane Center.
After brushing past or over islands in the Bahamas, forecasters said Nicole was likely to strengthen to a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall on Florida’s southeast coast late Wednesday or early Thursday.
“(People) have time to prepare Tuesday and Wednesday before the worst of the conditions arrive Wednesday, late afternoon, and Wednesday night,” said AccuWeather forecast operations director Dan DePodwin.
Experts predict Nicole could trigger a storm surge of up to 5 feet as it also drenches Florida’s coastline with heavy rain.
Widespread coastal flooding, tropical storm-force winds, and heavy rain will begin overnight Tuesday into Wednesday in eastern Florida, with impacts reaching northwest to the eastern Panhandle into Thursday, according to WeatherTiger meteorologist Ryan Truchelut.
If it hits as a hurricane, as predicted, it would be the latest on record to make landfall along the east coast of Florida, according to Colorado State University hurricane researcher Phil Klotzbach.
Nicole is a rare storm: Only one hurricane on record has made landfall after Nov. 4 in the continental U.S. That was Hurricane Kate on Nov. 21, 1985, which hit at Category 2 intensity near Mexico Beach, Florida, Klotzbach said.
Here’s what to know about Nicole’s latest movements and forecast:
Where is Nicole?
As of Tuesday afternoon, the center of Tropical Storm Nicole was about 285 miles northeast of the northwestern Bahamas and about 395 miles east of West Palm Beach, Florida, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The storm’s west-southwest motion was expected to continue through Wednesday before shifting more toward the west-northwest Wednesday night, the Hurricane Center said.
Nicole’s eye was expected to approach the northwestern Bahamas later Tuesday and Tuesday night and move near or over the islands Wednesday before approaching Florida’s east coast.
What is Nicole’s wind speed?
Tropical Storm Nicole’s maximum sustained winds were about 65 mph as of late Tuesday afternoon, with higher gusts, according to the NHC.
Over the past two days, Florida’s east coast had seen wind gusts related to Nicole of 25 to 35 mph, said DePodwin, who added that the gusts would continue into early Thursday.
“Most of the entirety of the Florida peninsula can experience wind gusts between 40 and 60 mph starting later Tuesday, and that will spread across the entire peninsula later Wednesday and Wednesday night,” DePodwin said.
Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 380 miles from the center of the storm, the National Hurricane Center’s Tuesday afternoon advisory said.
SUBTROPICAL STORM:How is it different from a tropical or extratropical system?
What is the forecast for Nicole?
A hurricane warning was in effect Tuesday for parts of South Florida and islands in the northwestern Bahamas, according to the NHC, which described Nicole as a “large tropical cyclone.”
The storm was expected to reach hurricane or near-hurricane strength over the next 36 to 48 hours.
Apart from a few showers on Tuesday, impacts on eastern Florida from Nicole were “pretty quiet” as the storm remained far offshore, according to DePodwin.
Rain bands were expected to usher in tropical rainfall over the state starting Tuesday night into Wednesday, bringing 2 to 4 inches of rain to much of the peninsula, he added.
“There can be an area of 4 to 8 inches of rain extending the eastern half of Florida up past the Space Coast and north of Cape Canaveral,” DePodwin said.
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When will Nicole hit Florida?
Nicole is expected to make landfall over Florida between West Palm Beach and Cape Canaveral late Wednesday into early Thursday, AccuWeather said.
Joel Cline, the tropical program coordinator for the National Weather Service, advised residents not to focus on Nicole’s exact track, as Nicole was expected to be a large storm with widespread impacts.
“The specific location of the storm that is still essentially forming as opposed to a giant hurricane which is well-formed and has an eye is entirely different,” Cline said.
Nicole could hit Florida’s east coast with 3 to 5 feet of storm surge and up to 6 inches of rain, according to Cline.
“These things don’t have to be exactly right over the top of you to make it the worst night of the year for you,” he said.
Schools will be closed in multiple counties across Florida as the storm approaches. Some announced closures through Friday, already an off day because of Veterans Day. Other districts have said they would cancel classes on Thursday.
Residents in at least three Florida counties – Flagler, Palm Beach and Volusia – were ordered to evacuate from barrier islands, low-lying areas and mobile homes. The evacuation orders are set to take effect Wednesday.
Officials at Orlando International Airport, the seventh busiest in the U.S., said commercial operations would stop Wednesday afternoon until it was safe to resume flights.
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Which other states could face impacts?
Nicole could bring 2 to 4 inches of rain to Georgia through the Carolinas, Virginia and parts of the Northeast, according to DePodwin.
Mountainous parts of North Carolina and Virginia could experience flooding from Nicole’s rainfall Thursday night and early Friday, DePodwin said.
AccuWeather forecasters expected an inch or two of rain to fall in Washington, D.C.; Philadelphia; Boston and New York into Friday night.
“We don’t expect a wind threat in those areas, but certainly heavy rain,” DePodwin said.
Contributing: The Associated Press
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